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Last updated Aug. 08, 2014


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2014 Election Race Ratings

The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings for House, Senate and Governor are categorized to reflect the degree to which one party or the other is projected to win. Ratings don’t reflect how close a contest is expected to be, but rather the degree of certainty that one political party will win the seat.

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169
Safe and continuing Democrats
216
Safe and continuing Republicans
Safe Democrat:175
50%
Current breakdown:
190 Democrats
233 Republicans
+  
Hide safe races

Competitive House Races

Republicans are well-positioned to retain their House majority, holding 211 seats currently rated safe and favored to win 11 more. For the Democrats to gain control of the chamber, they would need to win every seat where they have even a slight edge, plus about 20 more.

Tossup
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Romney 50%
Arizona 2 Ron Barber (D) Romney 50%
California 7 Ami Bera (D) Obama 51%
California 52 Scott Peters (D) Obama 52%
Florida 2 Steve Southerland II (R) Romney 52%
Florida 26 Joe Garcia (D) Obama 53%
Illinois 10 Brad Schneider (D) Obama 58%
Iowa 3 Tom Latham (R) Obama 51%
Nebraska 2 Lee Terry (R) Romney 53%
New Hampshire 1 Carol Shea-Porter (D) Obama 50%
New York 11 Michael G. Grimm (R) Obama 52%
West Virginia 3 Nick J. Rahall II (D) Romney 65%
Tilts Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Iowa 1 Bruce Braley (D) Obama 56%
Massachusetts 6 John F. Tierney (D) Obama 55%
Minnesota 8 Rick Nolan (D) Obama 52%
New York 1 Timothy H. Bishop (D) Obama 50%
Leans Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 26 Julia Brownley (D) Obama 54%
California 31 Gary G. Miller (R) Obama 57%
Georgia 12 John Barrow (D) Romney 55%
Hawaii 1 Colleen Hanabusa (D) Obama 70%
Illinois 17 Cheri Bustos (D) Obama 58%
Iowa 2 Dave Loebsack (D) Obama 56%
Maine 2 Michael H. Michaud (D) Obama 53%
Minnesota 7 Collin C. Peterson (D) Romney 54%
New Hampshire 2 Ann McLane Kuster (D) Obama 54%
New York 18 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) Obama 51%
New York 24 Dan Maffei (D) Obama 57%
Texas 23 Pete Gallego (D) Romney 51%
Favored Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 9 Kyrsten Sinema (D) Obama 51%
California 24 Lois Capps (D) Obama 54%
California 36 Raul Ruiz (D) Obama 51%
Florida 18 Patrick Murphy (D) Romney 52%
Massachusetts 9 William Keating (D) Obama 56%
Tilts Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arkansas 2 Tim Griffin (R) Romney 55%
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R) Obama 52%
Illinois 12 Bill Enyart (D) Obama 50%
New Jersey 3 Jon Runyan (R) Obama 52%
Leans Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Virginia 10 Frank R. Wolf (R) Romney 50%
West Virginia 2 Shelley Moore Capito (R) Romney 60%
Favored Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 10 Jeff Denham (R) Obama 51%
California 21 David Valadao (R) Obama 55%
Illinois 13 Rodney Davis (R) Romney 49%
Michigan 1 Dan Benishek (R) Romney 54%
Michigan 8 Mike Rogers (R) Romney 51%
Michigan 11 Kerry Bentivolio (R) Romney 52%
Montana AL Steve Daines (R) Romney 55%
New York 19 Chris Gibson (R) Obama 52%
New York 21 Bill Owens (D) Obama 52%
New York 23 Tom Reed (R) Romney 50%
Pennsylvania 6 Jim Gerlach (R) Romney 51%
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Senate Races

Republicans looking to claim their first Senate majority in eight years will need to pick up three Democratic-held seats in addition to the three in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia where they already have an edge. The most likely targets are toss-up races in Arkansas and Louisiana, and contested seats in Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Colorado Mark Udall (D) Obama 51%
Iowa Tom Harkin (D) Obama 52%
Kansas Pat Roberts (R) Romney 60%
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen (D) Obama 52%
North Carolina Kay Hagan (D) Romney 51%
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Michigan Carl Levin (D) Obama 54%
Minnesota Al Franken (D) Obama 53%
Oregon Jeff Merkley (D) Obama 55%
Virginia Mark Warner (D) Obama 51%
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Alaska Mark Begich (D) Romney 55%
Louisiana Mary L. Landrieu (D) Romney 58%
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arkansas Mark Pryor (D) Romney 61%
Georgia Saxby Chambliss (R) Romney 53%
Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R) Romney 60%
South Dakota Tim Johnson (D) Romney 58%
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D) Romney 62%
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Governor Races

Democrats are expected to make some gains in the 38 states that will elect governors in 2013 and 2014. Their best chances for pickups are in Maine and Pennsylvania, and they may lose the governor’s mansion in Arkansas. The two states that are pure tossups — Michigan and Florida — currently have GOP governors.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Connecticut Dannel P. Malloy (D) Obama 58%
Florida Rick Scott (R) Obama 50%
Illinois Pat Quinn (D) Obama 58%
Massachusetts Deval Patrick (D) Obama 61%
Wisconsin Scott Walker (R) Obama 53%
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Colorado John W. Hickenlooper (D) Obama 51%
Maine Paul R. LePage (R) Obama 56%
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Hawaii Neil Abercrombie (D) Obama 71%
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Maryland Martin O'Malley (D) Obama 62%
Pennsylvania Tom Corbett (R) Obama 52%
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee (D) Obama 63%
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Alaska Sean Parnell (R) Romney 55%
Arkansas Mike Beebe (D) Romney 61%
Kansas Sam Brownback (R) Romney 60%
Michigan Rick Snyder (R) Obama 54%
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona Jan Brewer (R) Romney 54%
Georgia Nathan Deal (R) Romney 53%
South Carolina Nikki R. Haley (R) Romney 55%
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Idaho C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) Romney 65%
Iowa Terry E. Branstad (R) Obama 52%
New Mexico Susana Martinez (R) Obama 53%
Ohio John R. Kasich (R) Obama 51%
Open seat Projected party turnover
NOTE: Democratic totals for the Senate include two independents.
Roll Call and CQ Weekly use ratings assigned by the Rothenberg Political Report, which are defined as follows: SAFE: As of today, the party indicated is all but certain to win the seat. FAVORED: One candidate has a substantial advantage, but an upset is still possible. LEAN: The party indicated has the edge, but the outcome is less certain than for races rated as favored. TILT: The outcome is effectively regarded as a tossup for each of these highly competitive seats, although the party indicated has a slight edge. TOSSUP: Neither party has an edge in these contests.