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Last updated April 27, 2015


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2016 Race Ratings


The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call Race Ratings for House, Senate and gubernatorial contests are categorized to reflect the degree to which one party or the other is projected to win. Ratings do not reflect how close a contest is expected to be, but rather the degree of certainty that one political party will win the seat.

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Current breakdown:
188 Democrats
245 Republicans
+  
Hide safe races

Competitive House Races

Republicans are in a strong position early in the cycle to retain their House majority, holding 224 seats currently rated safe and with just 31 seats in play on the entire map — 23 of those held by Republican members. Democrats would need a net gain of 30 seats to reclaim control, but there are a number of competitive contests that could provide an opportunity for them to chip away at the House GOP's historic size.

Tossup
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Romney 50%
Florida 18 Patrick Murphy (D) Romney 52%
Illinois 10 Robert J. Dold (R) Obama 58%
Iowa 1 Rod Blum (R) Obama 56%
Iowa 3 David Young (R) Obama 51%
Maine 2 Bruce Poliquin (R) Obama 53%
Nebraska 2 Brad Ashford (D) Romney 53%
New York 19 Chris Gibson (R) Obama 52%
New York 24 John Katko (R) Obama 57%
Texas 23 Will Hurd (R) Romney 51%
Tilts Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Nevada 4 Cresent Hardy (R) Obama 54%
Leans Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Favored Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 36 Raul Ruiz (D) Obama 51%
California 7 Ami Bera (D) Obama 51%
Florida 2 Gwen Graham (D) Romney 52%
Minnesota 7 Collin C. Peterson (D) Romney 54%
New York 18 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) Obama 51%
Tilts Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Florida 26 Carlos Curbelo (R) Obama 53%
Michigan 7 Tim Walberg (R) Romney 51%
New Hampshire 1 Frank C. Guinta (R) Obama 50%
Pennsylvania 8 Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) Romney 49%
Leans Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 2 Martha McSally (R) Romney 50%
California 25 Steve Knight (R) Romney 50%
Michigan 1 Dan Benishek (R) Romney 54%
New York 1 Lee Zeldin (R) Obama 50%
Virginia 10 Barbara Comstock (R) Romney 50%
Favored Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 21 David Valadao (R) Obama 55%
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R) Obama 52%
Florida 13 David Jolly (R) Obama 50%
Illinois 12 Mike Bost (R) Obama 50%
Nevada 3 Joe Heck (R) Obama 50%
New Jersey 3 Tom MacArthur (R) Obama 52%
Pennsylvania 6 Ryan A. Costello (R) Romney 51%
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Senate Races

Democrats need a net gain of five Senate seats for a majority, and the 2016 map could work in the party's favor. There are 24 Republican seats up this cycle, and seven are in states President Barack Obama won twice. Democrats have 10 Senate seats up this cycle, including two in the battleground states of Colorado and Nevada.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Florida Marco Rubio (R) Obama 50%
Wisconsin Ron Johnson (R) Obama 53%
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Illinois Mark S. Kirk (R) Obama 58%
Nevada Harry Reid (D) Obama 53%
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Colorado Michael Bennet (D) Obama 51%
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Safe Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
California Barbara Boxer (D) Obama 60%
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal (D) Obama 58%
Hawaii Brian Schatz (D) Obama 71%
Maryland Barbara A. Mikulski (D) Obama 62%
New York Charles E. Schumer (D) Obama 63%
Oregon Ron Wyden (D) Obama 55%
Vermont Patrick J. Leahy (D) Obama 67%
Washington Patty Murray (D) Obama 56%
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Pennsylvania Patrick J. Toomey (R) Obama 52%
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona John McCain (R) Romney 54%
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte (R) Obama 52%
North Carolina Richard M. Burr (R) Romney 51%
Ohio Rob Portman (R) Obama 51%
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Georgia Johnny Isakson (R) Romney 53%
Indiana Dan Coats (R) Romney 54%
Safe Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Alabama Richard C. Shelby (R) Romney 61%
Alaska Lisa Murkowski (R) Romney 55%
Arkansas John Boozman (R) Romney 61%
Idaho Michael D. Crapo (R) Romney 65%
Iowa Charles E. Grassley (R) Obama 52%
Kansas Jerry Moran (R) Romney 60%
Kentucky Rand Paul (R) Romney 60%
Louisiana David Vitter (R) Romney 58%
Missouri Roy Blunt (R) Romney 54%
North Dakota John Hoeven (R) Romney 58%
Oklahoma James Lankford (R) Romney 67%
South Carolina Tim Scott (R) Romney 55%
South Dakota John Thune (R) Romney 58%
Utah Mike Lee (R) Romney 73%
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Governor Races

Three states will host elections for governor in 2015: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. Eleven more states will have gubernatorial contests in 2016, including a top target for Democrats, North Carolina, and two pick-up opportunities for Republicans, Missouri and West Virginia.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Missouri Jay Nixon (D) Romney 54%
West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin (D) Romney 62%
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Kentucky Steven L. Beshear (D) Romney 60%
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Montana Steve Bullock (D) Romney 55%
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D) Obama 52%
Safe Democrat
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Delaware Jack Markell (D) Obama 59%
Oregon Kate Brown (D) Obama 55%
Vermont Peter Shumlin (D) Obama 67%
Washington Jay Inslee (D) Obama 56%
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
North Carolina Pat McCrory (R) Romney 51%
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Indiana Mike Pence (R) Romney 54%
Safe Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Louisiana Bobby Jindal (R) Romney 58%
Mississippi Phil Bryant (R) Romney 55%
North Dakota Jack Dalrymple (R) Romney 58%
Utah Gary R. Herbert (R) Romney 73%
Open seat Projected party turnover
NOTE: Democratic totals for the Senate include two independents.
Roll Call and CQ Weekly use ratings assigned by the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, which are defined as follows: SAFE: As of today, the party indicated is all but certain to win the seat. FAVORED: One candidate has a substantial advantage, but an upset is still possible. LEAN: The party indicated has the edge, but the outcome is less certain than for races rated as favored. TILT: The outcome is effectively regarded as a tossup for each of these highly competitive seats, although the party indicated has a slight edge. TOSSUP: Neither party has an edge in these contests.