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Last updated Sept. 10, 2013


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2014 Election Race Ratings

The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings for House, Senate and Governor are categorized to reflect the degree to which one party or the other is projected to win. Ratings don’t reflect how close a contest is expected to be, but rather the degree of certainty that one political party will win the seat.

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Hide safe races
174
Safe and continuing Democrats
210
Safe and continuing Republicans
Safe Democrat:175
50%
Current breakdown:
196 Democrats
232 Republicans

Competitive House Races

Republicans are well-positioned to retain their House majority, holding 210 seats currently rated safe and favored to win 8 more. For the Democrats to gain control of the chamber, they would need to win every seat where they have even a slight edge, plus about 20 more.

Tossup
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 2 Ron Barber, D Romney 50%
California 52 Scott Peters, D Obama 52%
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman, R Obama 52%
Illinois 10 Brad Schneider, D Obama 58%
Iowa 3 Tom Latham, R Obama 51%
New York 21 Bill Owens, D Obama 52%
West Virginia 3 Nick Rahall, D Romney 65%
Tilts Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 1 Ann Kirkpatrick, D Romney 50%
Florida 26 Joe Garcia, D Obama 53%
Massachusetts 6 John Tierney, D Obama 55%
New Hampshire 1 Carol Shea-Porter, D Obama 50%
Leans Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 7 Ami Bera, D Obama 51%
California 31 Gary Miller, R Obama 57%
Georgia 12 John Barrow, D Romney 55%
Illinois 12 Bill Enyart, D Obama 50%
Illinois 17 Cheri Bustos, D Obama 58%
Minnesota 7 Collin Peterson, D Romney 54%
Minnesota 8 Rick Nolan, D Obama 52%
New Hampshire 2 Ann Kuster, D Obama 54%
New York 1 Timothy Bishop, D Obama 50%
New York 11 Michael Grimm, R Obama 52%
Favored Democratic
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona 9 Kyrsten Sinema, D Obama 51%
California 26 Julia Brownley, D Obama 54%
California 36 Raul Ruiz, D Obama 51%
Florida 18 Patrick Murphy, D Romney 52%
Maine 2 Michael Michaud, D Obama 53%
New York 18 Sean Maloney, D Obama 51%
New York 24 Dan Maffei, D Obama 57%
Texas 23 Pete Gallego, D Romney 51%
Tilts Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 21 David Valadao, R Obama 55%
Florida 2 Steve Southerland, R Romney 52%
Illinois 13 Rodney Davis, R Romney 49%
Michigan 1 Dan Benishek, R Romney 54%
Nebraska 2 Lee Terry, R Romney 53%
New Jersey 3 Jon Runyan, R Obama 52%
New York 19 Chris Gibson, R Obama 52%
Leans Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arkansas 2 Tim Griffin, R Romney 55%
Michigan 8 Mike Rogers, R Romney 51%
New York 23 Tom Reed, R Romney 50%
Ohio 14 David Joyce, R Romney 51%
Pennsylvania 6 Jim Gerlach, R Romney 51%
Virginia 10 Frank Wolf, R Romney 50%
West Virginia 2 Shelley Capito, R Romney 60%
Favored Republican
District Incumbent 2012 president vote
California 10 Jeff Denham, R Obama 51%
Indiana 2 Jackie Walorski, R Romney 56%
Michigan 7 Tim Walberg, R Romney 51%
Michigan 11 Kerry Bentivolio, R Romney 52%
Montana AL Steve Daines, R Romney 55%
Nevada 3 Joe Heck, R Obama 50%
Ohio 6 Bill Johnson, R Romney 55%
Pennsylvania 8 Michael Fitzpatrick, R Romney 49%
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Senate Races

Republicans looking to claim their first Senate majority in eight years will need to pick up three Democratic-held seats in addition to the three in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia where they already have an edge. The most likely targets are toss-up races in Arkansas and Louisiana, and contested seats in Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Iowa Tom Harkin, D
Louisiana Mary Landrieu, D
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Alaska Mark Begich, D
Colorado Mark Udall, D
North Carolina Kay Hagan, D
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Michigan Carl Levin, D
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Minnesota Al Franken, D
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen, D
Oregon Jeff Merkley, D
Virginia Mark Warner, D
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arkansas Mark Pryor, D
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Kentucky Mitch McConnell, R
Montana Max Baucus, D
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller, D
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Georgia Saxby Chambliss, R
South Dakota Tim Johnson, D
Open seat Projected party turnover

Competitive Governor Races

Democrats are expected to make some gains in the 38 states that will elect governors in 2013 and 2014. Their best chances for pickups are in Maine and Pennsylvania, and they may lose the governor’s mansion in Arkansas. The two states that are pure tossups — Michigan and Florida — currently have GOP governors.

Tossup
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Florida Rick Scott, R
Illinois Pat Quinn, D
Tilts Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Maine Paul LePage, R
Leans Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Connecticut Dannel Malloy, D
Pennsylvania Tom Corbett, R
Favored Democratic
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Colorado John Hickenlooper, D
Hawaii Neil Abercrombie, D
Massachusetts Deval Patrick, D
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee, D
Tilts Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arkansas Mike Beebe, D
Michigan Rick Snyder, R
Ohio John Kasich, R
Leans Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Arizona Jan Brewer, R
South Carolina Nikki Haley, R
Wisconsin Scott Walker, R
Favored Republican
State Incumbent 2012 president vote
Georgia Nathan Deal, R
Iowa Terry Branstad, R
Kansas Sam Brownback, R
New Mexico Susana Martinez, R
Open seat Projected party turnover
NOTE: Democratic totals for the Senate include two independents.
Roll Call and CQ Weekly use ratings assigned by the Rothenberg Political Report, which are defined as follows: SAFE: As of today, the party indicated is all but certain to win the seat. FAVORED: One candidate has a substantial advantage, but an upset is still possible. LEAN: The party indicated has the edge, but the outcome is less certain than for races rated as favored. TILT: The outcome is effectively regarded as a tossup for each of these highly competitive seats, although the party indicated has a slight edge. TOSSUP: Neither party has an edge in these contests.