Of the 87 Republicans who were first elected to Congress in 2010, nearly two-thirds are running in safe Republicans seats this cycle, according to Roll Call’s race ratings. The 29 members of the freshman class in some danger of losing their seats to challengers are shown above, color coded by race rating for the 2012 election.
Only two of these 29 endangered GOP freshmen are from states that John McCain won in 2010 (Francisco “Quico” Canseco of Texas and Jeff Landry of Louisiana, who faces another Republican member in the general election because of redistricting). All but three of the 29 won last cycle by turning a blue district red, whether by turning out an incumbent or taking over an open seat previously held by a Democrat. Only three are members of the conservative Tea Party Caucus, which 21% of all House Republicans belong to.
Six of the contested races shown above are rematches. For example, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle of New Y0rk, who defeated Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei last cycle, faces him again in November in a race that leans Democratic. Both New Hampshire representatives — Charles Bass and Frank Guinta — face their 2010 opponents again in races rated as tossups.
In addition to freshmen in safe seats, also not shown here are Ben Quayle of Arizona and Sandy Adams of Florida, who have already lost in member-vs.-member primaries, and Rick Berg of North Dakota who gave up his seat by running for Senate.
Interactive by Robert Huttinger